HIER 2000 Abstracts

1887. Simon Johnson, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer
Tunnelling
Abstract | Paper
Tunnelling is defined as the transfer of assets and profits out of firms for the benefit of their controlling shareholders. We describe the various forms that tunnelling can take, and examine under w­hat circumstances it is legal. We discuss two important legal principles--the duty of care and the duty of loyalty--which courts use to analyze involving tunnelling. Several important legal cases from France, Belgium, and Italy illustrate how and why the law accommodaates tunnelling in civil law countries, and why certain kinds of tunnelling are less likely to pass legal scrutiny in common law countries.

1888. N. Gregory Mankiw
The Savers-Spenders Theory of Fiscal Policy
Abstract | Paper
The Macroeconomic analysis of fiscal policy is usually based on one of two canonical models--the Barro-Ramsey model of infinitely-lived families or the Diamond-Samuelson model of overlapping generations. This paper argues that neither model is satisfactory and suggests an alternative. In the proposed model, some consumers plan ahead for themselves and their descendants, while others live paycheck to paycheck. This model is easier to reconcile with the essential facts about consumer behavior and wealth accumulation, and it yields some new and surprising conclusions about fiscal policy.

1889. Olivier Blanchard and Andrei Shleifer
Federalism With and Without Political Centralization. China versus Russia
Abstract
In China, local governments have actively contributed to the growth of new firms. In Russia, local governments have typically stood in the way, be it through taxation, regulation, or corruption. There appears to be two main reasons behind the behavior of local governments in Russia. First, capture by old firms, leading local governments to protect them from competition by new entrants. Second, competition for rents by local officials, eliminating incentives for new firms to enter.

1890. Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes and Andrei Shleifer
Government Ownership of Banks
Abstract | Paper
In this paper, we investigate a neglected aspect of financial systems of many countries around the world; government ownership of banks. We assemble data which establish four findings. First, government ownership of banks is large and pervasive around the world. Second, such ownership is particularly significant in countries with low levels of per capita income, underdeveloped financial systems, interventionist and inefficient governments, and poor protection of property rights. Third, government ownership of banks is associated with slower subsequent financial development. Finally, government ownership of banks is associated with lower subsequent growth of per capita income, and in particular with lower growth of productivity rather than slower factor accumulation. This evidence is inconsistent with the optimistic "development" theories of government ownership of banks common in the 1960s, but supports the more recent "political" theories of the effects of government ownership of firms.

1891. Edward L. Glaeser, Matthew E. Kahn and Jordan Rappaport
Why Do The Poor Live In Cities?
Abstract | Paper
More than 17 percent of households in American central cities live in poverty; in American suburbs, just 7.4 percent of households live in poverty. The income elasticity of demand for land is too low for urban poverty to be the result of wealthy individuals' wanting to live where land is cheap (the traditional urban economics explanation of urban poverty). Instead, the urbanization of poverty appears to be the result of bettter access to public transportation in central cities, and central city governments favoring the poor (relative to suburban governments).

1892. Laurent E. Calvet and Etienne Comon
Behavioral Heterogeneity and the Income Effect
Abstract
Inspired by the recent literature on aggregation theory, this paper introduces HITS, a semiparametric model of consumer demand that allows for diversity in tastes. The strong variation of budget shares observed aacross income strata can arise from two economic factors: the individual income effect, and taste differences between poor and rich households. Consumer expenditure surveys that report repeated cross-sections do not permit the direct measurement of these two effects, and the paper solves this difficulty by developing a new microeconometric framework. We model consumer demand by a class of Nearly Ideal Demand Systems parameterized by a unique taste parameter. Linear heterogeneity allows GMM estimation of the structural coefficients on an aggregate time series, and the joint density of spending and tastes is recovered from cross-sections by a nonparametric procedure involving a deconvolution. We develop an asymptotic theory and demonstrate the accuracy of the algoriithm by Monte Carlo and bootstsrap simulations. The model is estimated on four size groups using the British Family Expenditure Survey (1968-98). We report a strong correlation between income and tastes, which explains most of the observed varriation of budget shares with income. Unlike some earlier models, this new approach is consistent with both the yearly cross-sections of individual choices and the dynamics of aggregate shares.

1893. Randall Morck and Masao Nakamura
Japanese Corporate Governance and Macroeconomic Problems
Abstract | Paper
Japan's prolonged economic problems are due to more than faulty macro-economic policies. We do not deny the importance of bungled macro-economic policy, but argue than deeper maladies in Japanese corporate governance made that country increasingly vulnerable to such problems. We argue that Japan's main bank and financial keiretsu systems left corporate governance largely in the hands of creditors rather than shareholders. thus, Japanese governance practices did not assign effective control rights to residual claimants. This, we argue led to a widespread misallocation of capital that mired Japan in excess capacity and liquidity problems.

1894. Edward L. Glaeser and Bruce Sacerdote
The Determinants of Punishment: Deterrence, Incapacitation and Vengeance
Abstract | Paper
Does the economic model of optimal punishment explain the variation in the sentencing of murderers? As the model predicts, we find that murderers with a high expected probability of recidivism receive longer sentences. Sentences are longest in murder types where apprehension rates are low, and where deterrence elasticities appear to be high. However, sentences respond to victim characteristics in a way that is hard to reconcile with optimal punishment. In particular, victim characteristics are important determinants of sentencing among vehicular homicides, where victims are basically random and where the optimal punishment model predicts that victim characteristics should be ignored. Among vehicular homicides, drivers who kill women get 56 percent longer sentences. Drivers who kill blacks get 53 percent shorter sentences.

1895. John Y. Campbell and Luis M. Viceira
Who Should Buy Long-Term Bonds?
Abstract | Paper
According to conventional wisdom, long-term bonds are appropriate for conservative long-term investors. This paper develops a model of optimal consumption and portfolio choice for infinite-lived investors with recursive utility who face stochastic interest rates, solves the model using an approximate analytical method, and evaluates the conventional wisdom. As risk aversion increases, the myopic component of risky asset demand disappears but the intertemporal hedging component does not. Conservative investors hold assets to hedge the risk that real interest rates will decline. Long-term inflation-indexed bonds are most suitable for this purpose, but nominal bonds may also be used if inflation risk is low.

1896. John Y. Campbell, Joao F. Cocco, Francisco J. Gomes, and Pascal J. Maenhout
Investing Retirement Wealth: A Life-Cycle Model
Abstract | Paper
If household portfolios are constrained by borrowing and short-sales restrictions, or by fixed costs of participating in risky asset markets, then alternative retirement savings systems may affect household welfare by relaxing these constraints. This paper uses a calibrated partial-equilibrium model of optimal life-cycle portfolio choice to explore the empirical relevance of these issues. In a benchmark case, we find ex-ante welfare gains equivalent to a 3.7% increase in consumption from the investment of half of retirement wealth in the equity market. The main channel through which these gains are realized is that the higher average return on equities permits a lower Social Security tax rate on younger households, which helps households smooth their consumption over the life cycle. There is a smaller welfare gain of 0.5% of consumption when Social Security tax rates are held constant. We also find that realistic heterogeneity of risk aversion and labor income risk can strongly affect optimal portfolio choice over the life cycle, which provides one argument for a privatized Social Security system with an element of personal portfolio choice.

1897. John Y. Campbell
Asset Pricing at the Millennium
Abstract | Paper
This paper surveys the field of asset pricing. The emphasis is on the interplay between theory and empirical work, and on the tradeoff between risk and return. Modern research seeks to understand the behavior of the stochastic discount factor (SDF) that prices all assets in the economy. The behavior of the term structure of real interest rates restricts the conditional mean of the SDF, while patterns of risk premia restrict its conditional volatility and factor structure. Stylized facts about interest rates, aggregate stock prices, and cross-sectional patterns in stock returns have stimulated new research on optimal portfolio choice, intertemporal equilibrium models, and behavioral finance.

1898. Fumio Hayashi
Is There a Liquidity Effect in the Japanese Market?
Abstract | Paper
This paper examines whether there is a liquidity effect in the Japanese interbank market for overnight loans. If the reserve requirement is the only reason for banks to hold reserves, then the demand for reserves should be infinitely elastic at the overnight rate that is expected to prevail for the rest of the reserve maintenance period. If, however, reserves are also useful for facilitating transactions between banks, then the demand curve will be down-sloping as a function of the overnight rate. We say that a liquidity effect exists if the demand curve is downward sloping, not horizontal, at the observed level of reserves. Estimating the slope of the demand curve for reserves must deal with the simultaneity problem because the central bank actively chooses the supply of reserves to guide the overnight rate to a range close to the target rate. This paper estimates the liquidity effect in the Japanese interbank market for overnight loans (the so-called Call market). The estimation exploits the institutional features, particularly the fact that the rates observed in the morning are forward rates for funds deliverable at 1 pm of the day. The results indicate that the large injection of reserves by the Bank of Japan after the Yamaichi debacle was not enough to eliminate the liquidity effect. The evidence found in this paper is consistent with the view that the Desk behaved optimally before and after the Yamachi debacle.

1899. John Y. Campbell, Joao Cocco, Francisco Gomes, Pascal Maenhout, and Luis Viceira
Stock Market Mean Reversion and the Optimal Equity Allocation of a Long-Lived Investor
Abstract | Paper
This paper solves numerically the intertemporal consumption and portfolio choice problem of an infinitely-lived investor who faces a time-varying equity premium. The solutions we obtain are very similar to the approximate analytical solutions of Campbell and Viceira (1999), except at the upper extreme of the state space where both the numerical consumption and portfolio rules flatten out. We also consider a contrained version of the problem in which the investor faces borrowing and short-sales contraints. These constraints bind when the equity premium moves away from its mean in either direction, and are particularly severe for risk-tolerant investors. The optimal constrained portfolio rules are similar but not idenitcal to the optimal unconstrained rules with the constraints imposed. The portfolio constraints also affect the optimal consumption policy.

1900. John Y. Campbell and Sydney Ludvigson
Elasticities of Substitution in Real Business Cycle Models with Home Production
Abstract | Paper
This paper constructs a simple model of home productions that demonstrates the connection between the intertemporal elasticity of substitution in market consumption (IES) and the static elasticity of substitution between home and market consumption (SES). Understanding this connection is important because there is a large body of empirical evidence suggesting that the IES is small, but little evidence on the size of the SES. We use our framework to shed light on the properties of a home production model with a low IES. We find that such a model must have three fundamental properties in order to match key aspects of aggregate U.S. data. First, the steady-state growth rate of technology must be the same across sectors. Second, shocks to technology must be sufficiently positively correlated across sectors. Third, capital must be used more intensively in the market sector than in the home sector. A home production model with these three properties can be surprisingly successful at reconciling the RBC paradigm with evidence for a low IES.

1901. Edward L. Glaeser, Jed Kolko and Albert Saiz
Consumer City
Abstract | Paper
Urban economics has traditionally viewed cities as having advantages in production and disadvantages in consumption. We argue that the role of urban density in facilitating consumption is extremely important and understudied. As firms become more mobile the success of cities hinges more and more on cities' role as centers of consumption. Empirically, we find that high amenity cities have grown faster than the low amenity cities. Urban rents have gone up faster than urban wages, suggesting that the demand for living in cities has risen for reasons beyond rising wages. The rise of reverse community suggests the same consumer city phenomena.

1902. Laurent Calvet and Adlai Fisher
Forecasting Multifractal Volatility
Abstract | Paper
This paper develops analytical methods to forecast the distribution of future returns for a new continuous-time process, the Poisson multi-fractal. The process captures the thick tails, volatility persistence and moment scaling exhibited by many financial time series. It can be interpreted as a stochastic volatility model with multiple frequencies and a Markov latent state. We assume for simplicity that the forecaster knows the true generating process with certainty but only observes past returns. The challenge in this environment is long memory and the corresponding infinite dimension of the state space. We introduce a discretized version of the model that has a finite state space and allows for an analytical solution to the conditioning problem. As the grid size goes to infinity, the discretized model weakly converges to the continuous-time process, implying the consistsency of the density forecasts.

1903. Oliver Hart
Different Approaches to Bankruptcy
Abstract | Paper
In the last fifteen years or so, lawyers working in law and economics and economists with an interest in legal matters have turned their attention to the topic of bankruptcy. A large amount of work has resulted, both theoretical and empirical, some of which has been concerned with the functioning of existing bankruptcy procedures and some with bankruptcy reform. Although researchers in this area have expressed different views, I believe that one can identify a conssensus on certain issues, e.g., the goals of bankruptcy and some of the characteristics of an efficient bankruptcy procedure. This paper summarizes this consensus. One point I will stress is that it is unlikely that "one size fits all." That is, although some bankruptcy procedures can probably be rejected as being manifestly bad, there is a class of procedures that satisfy the main criteria of efficiency. Which procedure a country chooses or should choose may then depend on other factors, e.g., the country's institutional sstructure and legal tradition. One can also imagine a country choosing a menu of procedures and allowing firms to select among them.

1904. Simeon Djankow, Rafael La Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and Andrei Shleifer
The Regulation of Entry
Abstract | Paper
We present new data on the regulation of entry of start-up firms in 75 countries. The data set contains information on the number of procedures, official time, and official cost that a start-up must bear before it can operate legally. The official costs of entry are extremely high in most countries. Countries with heavier regulation of entry have higher corruption and larger unofficial economies, but not better quality of public of private goods. Countries with more democraatic and limited governments have fewer entry regulations. The evidence is inconsistent with Pigouvian (helping hand) theories of benevolent regulation, but support the (grabbing hand) view that entry regulation benefits politicans and bureaucrats.

1905. N. Gregory Mankiw
The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff Between Inflation and Unemployment
Abstract | Paper
This paper discusses the short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. Although this tradeoff remains a necessary building block of business cycle theory, economists have yet to provide a completely satisfactory explanation for it. According to the consensus view among central bankers and monetary economists, a contractionary monetary shock raises unemployment, at leasst temporarily, and leads to a delayed and gradual fall in inflation. Standard dynamic models of price adjustment, however, cannot explain this pattern of responses. Reconciling the consensus view about the effects of monetary policy with models of price adjustment remains an outstanding puzzle for business cycle theorists.

1906. Andrei Shleifer and Daniel Wolfenson
Investor Protection and Equity Markets
Abstract | Paper
The paper presents a simple model of an entrepreneur going public in an environment with poor legal protection of outside shareholders. The model incorporates elements of Becker's (1968) "crime and punishment" framework into a corporate finance environment of Jensen and Meckling (1976). We examine the entrepreneur's decision and the market equilibrium. The model is consistent with a number of empirical regularities concerning the relationship between investor protection and corporate finance.

1907. Stephen A. Marglin
Keynes Without Nominal Rigidities
Abstract | Paper
No Abstract Available

1908. Nicholas Barberis and Andrei Shleifer
Style Investing
Abstract | Paper
We study asset prices in an economy where some investors classify risky assets into different styles and move funds back and forth between these styles depending on their relative performance. Our assumptions imply that news about one style can affect the prices of other apparently unrelated styles, that assets in the same style will comove too much while assets in different styles comove to little, and that high average returns on a style will be associated with common factors for reasons unrelated to risk. They also lead to a rich pattern of own-and cross-autocorrelations, sample premia that can be very different from true premia, and imply that style momentum strategies will be profitable. We use our model to shed light on many puzzling features of the data.