Kenneth Rogoff

Recent Papers

(For complete publications, see vitae).

"Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800" (with Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart), Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 26, No. 3, Summer 2012, 69-86. An earlier version was published as "Debt Overhangs: Past and Present," NBER Working Paper No. 18015, April 2012.

“Debt Overhangs: Past and Present” (with Carmen M. Reinhart and Vincent R. Reinhart), forthcoming Journal of Economic Perspectives. Also available as NBER working paper 18015, April 2012. Abstract.

“Can Oil Prices Forecast Exchange Rates?” (with Domenico Ferraro and Barbara Rossi), April 2012. NBER working paper 17998, April 2012. Abstract.

“From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis” (with Carmen M. Reinhart),American Economic Review 101 (August 2011), 1676-1706. DATA. Also available as NBER working paper 15795, March 2010. Abstract.

A Decade of Debt (with Carmen Reinhart), Washington, DC: Peterson Institute for International Economics, September 2011. A working paper version appeared as "A Decade of Debt" (with Carmen Reinhart), NBER Working Paper No. 16827, February 2011. Abstract

“Capital Controls: Myth and Reality—A Portfolio Balance Approach” (with Nicolas E. Magud and Carmen M. Reinhart), Peterson Institute for International Economics, Working Paper 11-7, February 2011. Abstract

"On Graduation from Default, Inflation and Banking Crises: Elusive or Illusion?" (with Rong Qian and Carmen M. Reinhart), in Daron Acemoglu and Michael Woodford (eds), 2010 NBER Macroeconomics Annual. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2011 forthcoming. An earlier version appeared as NBER Working Paper No. 16168, July 2010. Abstract

"Three Challenges Facing Modern Macroeconomics," American Economic Association Grand Challenge White Papers for Future Research, September 21, 2010

"Austerity and the IMF," Fifth Annual Richard H. Sabot Lecture, Washington: Center for Global Development, April 12, 2010.

"Three Epochs of Oil" (with Eyal Dvir), Harvard University, August 16, 2010. An earlier version appeared as NBER Working Paper No. 14927, April 2009. Abstract

VoxEU, "Debt and Growth Revisited" (with Carmen Reinhart), (pdf), August 11, 2010.

“Growth in a Time of Debt” (with Carmen M. Reinhart), American Economic Review 100 (2), May 2010, 573-578. Also available as NBER working paper 15639, January 2010. Abstract

“Can Exchange Rates Forecast Commodity Prices?” (with Yu-chin Chen and Barbara Rossi), Quarterly Journal of Economics, August 2010, Vol. 125, No. 3: 1145–1194. Also available as NBER working paper 13901, June 2008. Abstract

"Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Products of Common Causes" (with Maurice Obstfeld), Harvard University, October 2009.

“The Aftermath of Financial Crises (with Carmen M. Reinhart), American Economic Review 99 (May 2009) 466-472. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 14656, January 2009. Abstract

“Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace (with Carmen M. Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, December 2008. Also available as NBER Working Paper No. 14587, December 2008. Abstract

“Exchange Rate Arrangements into the 21st Century: Will the Anchor Currency Hold? (with Ethan O. Ilzetzki, and Carmen M. Reinhart). This paper includes updates to the exchange rate regime classifications in The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation" (with Carmen M. Reinhart), Quarterly Journal of Economics 119(1):1-48, February 2004. See Carmen Reinhart's website for additional background material.

“The Continuing Puzzle of Short-Horizon Exchange Rate Forecasting,” (with Vania Stavrakeva), manuscript, Harvard University, July 30, 2008. Also available as NBER working paper 14071, June 2008. Abstract

“This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises” (with Carmen Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, April 16, 2008. Also available as NBER working paper 13882, March 2008. SHORTER VERSION: This Time Is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises” (with Carmen Reinhart), manuscript, Harvard University, April 2008. Abstract

“The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt” (with Carmen M. Reinhart), Economic Journal Vol. 121, Issue 552 (May 2011): 319–350, lead article. Also available as NBER working paper 13946, April 2008. Abstract

“Is the 2007 US Sub-Prime Financial Crisis So Different? An International Historical Comparison” (with Carmen Reinhart), American Economics Review 98 (May 2008):339-344. Also appeared as NBER Working Paper #13761. (Revised version of a paper presented at the AEA annual meetings, New Orleans, January 6, 2008.)

“‘Exchange Rate Models Are Not as Bad as You Think’: A comment,” in Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Woodford (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 2008.

“Global Imbalances and Exchange Rate Adjustment,” Journal of Policy Modeling 28, (2006): 695-699.

“Impact of Globalization on Monetary Policy” in Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City The New Economic Geography: Effects and Policy Implications, 2007. (Revised version of paper presented at Kansas City Federal Reserve “Jackson Hole” conference, August 2006.)

“Paul Samuelson’s Contributions to Economics,” in Michael Szenberg, Lall Ramrattan and Aron Gottesman, editors, Samuelsonian Economics and the Twenty-First Century, Oxford University Press, 2006 (with minor revisions).

“Financial Globalization, A Reappraisal” (with M. Ayhan Kose, Eswar Prasad, and Shang-Jin Wei), International Monetary Fund Staff Papers Vol. 56, issue 1 (April 2009): 8-62. (Also available as a revised version of International Monetary Fund, Working Paper WP/06/189, December 2006; and NBER Working Paper No. 12484, August 2006.) Abstract

"Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development" (with Philippe Aghion; Philippe Bacchetta, and Romain Ranciere), Journal of Monetary Economics 56:4 (May 2009), pp. 494-513. An earlier version appeared as National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 12117, May 2006. Abstract. DATA

“The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited” (with Maurice Obstfeld; November 2005 version), in Richard Clarida (ed.), G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, University of Chicago Press 2007. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 10869, November 2004. Abstract

Financial Globalization, Growth and Volatility In Developing Countries” (with Eswar Prasad, Ayhan Kose and Shang-Jin Wei), in Ann Harrison (ed.) Globalization and Poverty, University of Chicago Press, 2006. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper 10942 (December 2004), Abstract